⊙ reporter Zhu Zhouliang 0 edit Zhu Xianjia
these days, global investors on Western countries especially the United States may turn early expectations of interest rate cycles suddenly heated up. In Europe, the ECB President Trichet has previously said that does not rule out starting interest rates next month, officials this week are still talking about inflation risks in Europe. In the United States, released late last week Federal Reserve officials favor reversed loose monetary policy after the speech, and a member of the Federal Reserve on Tuesday said, should be reduced in the existing US $ 600 billion of debt scheme.
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Yen exchange rate continuous sixth day go fell economic expected boost risk preference G20 Nanjing meeting does not on exchange rate Japan earthquake Hou investigation display economic status deterioration dollars fell fell over reverse predicted when cashed Greek Portuguese rating then was cut Europe debt situation tension AUD on dollars create 29 years high Japan the shouldn't spent reserves [RMB premium][market Center]was fed may reversed policy of expected effect , United States Treasury bonds dropped sharply on Tuesday, the dollar rebounded once. However, the United States stock markets remain along the line. Analysts believe that the environment of sustained economic recovery encouraged investors long on enthusiasm seems to have not been affected by impact of interest rate hike cycle may start.
United States of "QE2" to cut down?
since it was on Friday, fed officials for extremely loose monetary policy, "reversal" sound suddenly rose. From at least three voting members of the decision-making bodies of the Federal Reserve--FOMC is said, should not continue to expand the size of the second round of quantitative easing, some people even think we should consider raising interest rates or sell assets.
Tuesday, a Federal Reserve official--Saint Louis District of the Federal Reserve Bank President Brad made a "hawkish" comments. Although he is not a voting FOMC members this year, but it also affects the sensitive nerves of the market.
ultra-loose policy represents one of the end of support, Brad said at the weekend, long of super low interest rates will result in the "liquidity trap". On Tuesday, he also published a more hardline stance, saying the economy is robust enough, can be a second round of the Federal Reserve purchased debt of US $ 600 billion plan to reduce the scale of 100 billion dollars.
analysts note that Brad and other Central Bank officials frequently made "hawk" perspective, to a large extent reflect Administration concerns about potential inflationary pressures. Compared to United States, and inflationary pressure has been growing in Europe.
29 day, Mr Trichet again specifically expressed his concerns about inflation. Also have interest rates of urgency or United Kingdom. According to representatives of developed countries of OECD announced the latest February OECD average per cent increase in the consumer price index reached 2.4%, the highest rise since October 2008, United States, Britain, Italy and German CPI are accelerated.
equity markets firmer as rises not to Miss
according to some economists, inflationary pressure as developed economies increasingly clear, new interest rate cycle in the West may come soon. Next month on the income of the 4th meeting of the eurozone, may very well be the starting point of this cycle.
in General, interest rates on risky assets such as stocks often have a short-term impact. Damo's statistics show that in the past, when the Fed started raising rates for the first time after, European stock market will fall 8% per cent, decreased by 54 days of duration to 400 days. Credit Suisse is considered, at the beginning of higher interest rates, United States stock market often by 10%.
is considered most sensitive to interest rate changes in the stock market is bolanbujing. Tuesday US stocks are all higher, Dow and p 500 Index closed higher 0.7%, is satisfied that the rose 1%. Asia-Pacific stocks also rose on Wednesday, Japan stocks nearly 3% per cent, Hong Kong, China's stock market rose 1.7%.
market participants and experts believe that promoting fundamental because of the strength of the stock last, investors increasingly believe the United States as a representative of the global economic recovery is becoming sustainable; on the other hand, stock valuations are not too expensive, regardless of the comparison is a historical portrait, is compared with the rates of inflation and interest rates.
the other is to be noted that, as the world's citizenry fed still attached to the implementation of quantitative easing. Although recently some officials have expressed a different view, but most experts still believe that Bernanke stance to start before exiting, the Fed will remain unswerving commitment to the QE2, which is decided by the Federal Reserve's dual mandate. After all, the United States unemployment rate is still high in the 9%.
