in the Group of seven (G7) joint of the day after the intervention, dollar/Yen is now back to 81 near the narrow intervals. Most traders expected G7 will throw more Yen when needed, and 80 for the limits of intervention levels.
however, market analysts said that in the long run, the Japan earthquakes, tsunamis and nuclear leak on the impact of the yen could break Japan's trade balance, intensify the already very serious Japan government deficits and so on, will give Japan brings a series of serious problems, depreciation of the Yen's trend is inevitable.
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EU Summit gradually line gradually near euro bad followed dollars all fell dollars index challenge 16 months low Japan Central Bank then injection 2 trillion yen Europe Central Bank April interest rates expected warming Portugal GDP or will appears atrophy o plus Central Bank entered policy wait-and-see period [RMB premium][market Center]he said , Earthquake and tsunami on Japan export industry has had an impact, many roads, port infrastructure were destroyed, while East Japan region implement rolling blackouts also makes the system even to conduct production enterprises reduced working time. Another place is not to be ignored, the more severely affected areas is an important parts of automobiles, electronics and other products production base. These parts are missing, large exporters such as Toyota, Canon is difficult to fully resume production.
Japan exports within the next few months of delays in recovery, Japan is likely to be interested in the Government led to depreciation of the yen, to recover the disaster Japan economy and helped Japan Enterprise get back lost market share again. Depreciation of the yen in afternoon is expected to face greater pressure.
in addition, the Japan Government's own financial situation is very worrying. Japan government liabilities 870 trillion yen (about US $ 10.9 trillion), twice times Japan GDP for the year. According to bale g capital assessments, Japan post-disaster reconstruction can take up to 5 trillion to $ 7 trillion, roughly equivalent to Japan 6% 2010 annual expenditures by the Government. Japan raising money is a problem, if Japan government financial deterioration, the yen is likely to face pressure.
disc surface data, March 31, Japan before the end of the fiscal year, at 81.5 per cent of regional Japan commercial and retail dollar sell order has dramatically increased. If capital flows at the end of the year as in previous years, Japan Yen selling for investors in April will soar.
a analysts said that, due to the authorities during the struggle in the big dollars across the hand supporting the dollar against the yen, and April may be from Yen outflow of funds, now is good time to sell yen against the US dollar to other currencies. Resilient appear under the negative news of stock market also supported the yen carry trade.
in addition, the Tokyo Financial Exchange (TFX) data show that Japan retail margin dealers cut US dollar/Japanese yen and other major currencies on Friday the net long positions against the yen, the day the Group of seven (G7) joint interventions of Member States achieve a rising yen.
Japan security dealers Monday further reduced part, but clearing many site on Thursday compared to Friday and on Monday was relatively moderate; early on Thursday the Asian plate, bond dealers and other investors of dollar stop-loss selling emerged, the dollar/Yen fling into record lows 76.25.
the dollar/Yen net long positions on Friday reduced by about $ 116 million, or 11,605 on Monday declined to approximately half of the Friday. When it comes to New York late on Monday, retail investors in dollar/Yen net long position: US $ 1.76 billion, well below the $ 3.1 billion on Wednesday.
the dollar/yen on Friday and six major currencies against the yen of net long positions total reduction of about 61,000 on Monday fell nearly 52,000 than storms on Thursday reduced 254 00 above, appeared to be quite mild.
This shows that, even if the G7 intervention again, depreciation of the Yen's trend is inevitable.
