reporter Chen singing in the rain
2011 years, European debt crisis has faded out the eyes of investors. However, since last week Portugal Government sadly resigned, adjacent to international rating agencies lowered Greece and Portugal rating upgrade renewed Europe debt crisis, great return potential.
in fact, because of the uneven economic development among Member States of the eurozone, launched by the EU financial stability mechanism cannot fundamentally resolve the borrowing problem Member States, the debt crisis of the risk is always present, and with the Member States are facing debts of be anxious level of sustained attack from time to time. Analysts believe that because of the smaller Member States economic output of the current debt crisis, is sufficient to help scale the existing aid mechanism in the short term, European debt crisis "kidnapping" of the global economic situation does not appear; but in the long term, Europe debt crisis will continue to threaten global economic recovery, and repeated harassment of the global financial markets.
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Portugal 2011 financing demand for 38.5 billion euro , Share of the country's GDP share front ranks of the highest in the eurozone, according to the European Central Bank is expected, the country may eventually seek assistance around 75 billion euros.
analysts believe, Portugal financial whirlpool will let the market risk sentiment rising over a period of time, but because of its economic output is small, only 1.4% per cent of EU GDP, negative impact on European economies and markets like Greece so strong at the outbreak of the crisis. But closely conduction effect of the crisis, Spain is the fourth largest in the eurozone economy, the economy is Greece, and Ireland and Portugal twice times the sum of the three, if the crisis spread to Spain, and rescue mechanism able to timely and effective assistance, will have major consequences for global economic recovery.
CITIC Securities Chief macro-Economist Hu Yifan to the China Securities newspaper reporter saying, Spain in April, July and September this year will usher in the peak of debt-servicing, there may be the next debt crisis of the country. She pointed out that Spain in April, July and September, the average monthly debt interest and principal payments over 16 billion euros, and the country now only US $ 28 billion in foreign reserves, apparently unable to independently deal with debt.
the European Central Bank's latest data showed 28th, during the week ending 25th, the Member States of the row a total of 432 million euros to buy government bonds. This is the European Central Bank for the first time in four weeks recovery bond purchases, after three weeks in a row the row stopping to buy debt. Analysts believe that the above data shows that recent debt crisis has deteriorated.
relief mechanism difficult unless the root cause
Sun Jie, a researcher at the Institute of world economy and politics Institute pointed out that the causes of the debt crisis in Europe is, since the birth of the euro area in 1999, economic strength asymmetry exists among Member States, 11 years since the founding of the eurozone, which not only failed to narrow the gap, but continued to expand. To maintain uniform coordination of monetary policy in the eurozone, some Member States have to use fiscal policy or bank credit policies for macroeconomic regulation and control, internal imbalances and resulting crisis.
data show that in 1999, Germany GDP in the euro area average share of GDP is 28.41%, and Greece, and Ireland and Portugal accounted for separately in the economy in the euro area only 2.32%, and 1.88%.
Eurostat expects, in support of countries such as Germany and France, 2011 the eurozone's GDP growth will be close to 2%, but economic growth will remain divided. Portugal's Central Bank on 29th, 2011 in the country's economy will contract by 1.4%, 1.3% higher than previously expected; Greece, and Ireland economy is still not out of the recession in countries such as the bottom.
Germany latest data that Federal Labour Office announced on 30th, Germany the unemployment rate in February fell to 7.3%, the lowest level since 1999 started to publish the data, while Portugal's unemployment rate has always been high 20% can't.
11 years, Portugal always lag behind economic growth in the eurozone average. Analysts pointed out that the lack of highly skilled labour force which Portugal boosting employment, economic growth, debt extremely difficult. London University economist Carneiro said, fiscal tightening will further weaken the Government's investment in the education sector.
there are still risks the disintegration of the euro
while the EU has launched a huge relief mechanism, but if it does not solve the fundamental problem, and consequently unable to eradicate debt crisis, and recipient country saddled with more debt. Sun Jie pointed out that, as long as Member States of economic imbalances exist in the unified monetary policy, national fiscal policies are not constraints will not be able to ensure the stability of the eurozone, ultimately select only two facing the eurozone: unified fiscal or disintegration of the euro.
Netherlands International Group analysts believe meant the dissolution of the eurozone payment systems collapsed in the eurozone, alternative currency into huge fluctuations in the euro, will be followed to extreme turmoil in global financial markets, which will lead to economic recession in Europe as a whole, while the collapse of the global economy. The line was expected, if the disintegration of the euro area, GDP decline ranging from to to 4% per cent of Member States.
Hu Yifan, believes that instead of disintegration of the eurozone, but will more closely. There are two reasons: on the one hand, for States members of the high indebtedness, and exiting the eurozone meant a sharp currency devaluation, to bankrupt the nation, it is hard to bear significant costs on the other, Germany, and Austria, and other creditors are export-oriented economy, once the dissolution of the eurozone, their currencies to rise, these countries will immediately lose their competitive advantage. The future, high debt in the eurozone Member States possible debt restructuring, and give financial power, eventually leading to a unified monetary policy not only of the eurozone, there is more coordination of fiscal policies, this will be the ashes of the eurozone.
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