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Thursday, March 24, 2011

He says the Central Bank should minimize its intervention in the foreign exchange market

"the financial journalist Wang Yanchun"

"Chinese purchases United States national debt To Sino-US relations will benh countries. How to make the Chinese do not continue to large-scale buying us debt? A method is, stop as soon as possible Central Bank intervention in the foreign exchange market. "Yu yongding, a researcher at the Institute of Chinese Academy of social sciences in the world economy and politics in the 19th on China development high-level Forum 2011 academic Summit said.

Prof Yu says China so many years has maintained double surplus, the Central Bank buy dollars, released to the market of RMB, which brings some financial issues, such as the inflation pressure, Exchange Management has become increasingly difficult, and so on, so you should try to reduce the foreign exchange market intervention, if it may cause the Renminbi, you need to be prepared, adopted a different policy measures, to speed up the pace of liberalization of the exchange rate.

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people's Bank of China currency policy Second Secretary Donald JISHA Tibetan village recently said , If the Central Bank did not buy foreign exchange, RMB will be much appreciated, it is impossible to accept. He expected "35" (2011-2015) will close to equilibrium of RMB exchange rate, between about 5-6.

now, added us in debt, the Federal Reserve is the first buyer, China is second only to the Federal Reserve's second purchase, then, if for some reason stopped to purchase United States treasuries or reduce the United States Treasury bonds purchased, then the United States national debt crisis will occur, and produces a series of chain reactions, to the United States Treasury market into trouble.

from United States official statistics, China now has accumulated a $ 2.8 trillion of foreign currency reserves, in the $ 2.8 trillion in foreign exchange reserves, 1. 6 trillion dollars on United States Treasury bonds.

he says believes that Chinese purchases of United States bonds reason is complex, for example, China needs to assets deposited part United States Treasury bond investment form, the lack of investment opportunities in China, State-owned enterprises, private enterprises may temporarily not be relatively high income and savings funds in advance for future ageing society in China, for later use, and so on.

but now many people worry that, because of United States debt situation deteriorated, United States current account deficit, United States fiscal deficit has continued to grow, China has to consider the safety of bonds, "one day when want to buy these bonds, can buy many things? "He says that, in 2003, China's foreign exchange reserves was US $ 400 billion, when oil prices are more than 20 dollars; now that oil is $ 120, with the development of the world economic situation, which may further rise in commodity prices," This means that, if this trend continues, we need to use the Exchange when buying real, maybe we can't buy anything. So we have for the security of China's national debt. "

he says that this year, China faces three challenges: the first challenge is the world's slow economic recovery step. The second is the United States a series of rapid expansion of monetary policy, may result in further deterioration of the situation of world inflation. Third is the world facing serious debt crisis.