Eurozone financial hegemony at risk worshipped by the United States

figure held for hexun.com "focusing on Europe debt crisis gripped the Forex game workshop" live

hexun exchange messages by hexun exchange channels, China will co-host the financial focus of European debt crisis gripped in Chaoyang Beijing, June 23, 2011, at the seminar of the Forex game held outside Prime building, 11. Several senior experts and scholars around the Conference themes in the economics profession "in the European debt crisis gripped the Forex game" discussion.

turning the Renminbi issue, Deputy Director of the Renmin University of China Director of the Institute for international monetary and Xiang Songzuo think currency is a completely wrong decision, it did not meet the national expectations. In the process of internationalization of RMB, Renminbi stable is the best policy, so to a certain time will turn down devaluation of renminbi. In addition, the RMB's internationalization needs RMB liquidity very rich, people are willing to hold savings and consumption of RMB, RMB internationalization development approach.

Tan Yaling Dean of foreign investment in China believe that prices rise beyond the reality of the Renminbi. Problem appears to be the market price and the country's exchange rate regime of RMB exchange rate, in fact, it is refracted out of cultural issues, is the issue of finance, is a position of national interests, is not a small thing. From this point of view, orientation of RMB beyond the definition. In reality, interest rates and the renminbi is not tackling the domestic current inflation.

talk about United States when economic trends, CSRC Plan Development Committee member Zhou Chunsheng believes that while the Fed does not explicitly set the QE3, but will continue to maintain a relatively low interest rates, when necessary, will maintain loose monetary policy. And United States financial hegemony brought tremendous benefits to Americans, because everyone recognized United States notes issued by the, which exceeds United States entities give Americans the benefits of economic growth. In contrast, large amounts of foreign exchange reserves to China is not good, because it also keep up with inflation. Bank of communications (601,328, unit) Zhang Deqian international business exchange researchers, traders think, judging from the various economic indicators, United States economy are more short-term weakness, but the United States resolved the current domestic debt problem is still very confident.

$ currently disadvantaged, Zhang Deqian analysis to US dollar exchange rate is now the location of 75 near dollars still in a consolidation trend in the second half, investors in the vicinity of 75 may be appropriate to consider long on dollars. Dollar long-term bear market will not change in a short time, if dollar index rebound, then, is between the 75-80 will also come to an end, while the dollar is in a normal fluctuation interval in the 70-75. He also believed that before December of this year, the Fed raised benchmark interest rates in the possibility of 30%. From the market price can also be more clear, market judgement on Fed policy, under the influence of this, which is also affecting the dollar rebound unsustainable exchange rates, and low for a long time the most important factors.

for the growing European debt crisis, China institutes of contemporary international relations researcher Liu Mingli in Europe said the first round of the European Union rescue Greece have failed, this means that on Greece, and Portugal, and Spain are not able to rescue, five European pigs may slowly falling, even affects the rest of Europe. Therefore, if the ECB's capital had been restored, easing other debtor countries, the European Central Bank is likely to choose a massive debt restructuring. Of course, the present situation, also does not have the disintegration of the conditions in the eurozone, because judging from whatever from the debtor or from the core countries, are reluctant to see the disintegration of the euro area. Overall, European economic stability is beneficial to China. If European economic collapse, then momentum means that protectionism will more.

CCTV securities channel Executive Editor-in-Chief Niu Wenxin has concluded that, for changes in European financial issues should now be a very significant turning point. As soon as the EU can take advantage of this opportunity to put their own weakness up. However, hard to successfully solve the debt crisis in Europe, without the right to speak for financial markets in Europe, Europe does not exist on the commodity pricing power, even on the pricing of bonds in themselves are not eligible, he could not fight the impact of international capital, combined with the market now does not give you the time, Europe's debt problems are hard to digest, so now the situation is very dangerous for Europe.

in the round-table discussion, experts on the Renminbi to the dollar hegemony to the Greece debt crisis issues were hotly discussed. Speaking of Greece issues when China institutes of contemporary international relations researcher Liu Mingli in Europe says Greece debt crisis of the eruption is the root of these countries, people head, long-term economic growth could not be found. United States want to depress the euro, however, once the crisis in Europe, you are likely to get United States economic recession, so United States hope that the eurozone did not die of disease, soft and not down.

Tan Yaling further indicated that the Greece crisis is to a large extent United States behind the rise in revolt. Americans for the first control is the price, the second pressingIs the eurozone's economy, the third is the differentiation of the eurozone's political, to the total disintegration of the Euro IV, so as to ultimately achieve United States of a single. United States do all the things he has strategic vision and depth of our old "conspiracy theory" see United States, but we should see the events behind the foresight. Niu Wenxin teacher shares this view.

Zhang Deqian is considered, from a market perspective, eurozone problem in the short term is unlikely. Because the euro's gains in the first quarter of this year reached about 14%, currently Euro gains compared with the earlier, 7% location. Euro before Greece debt crisis impact location near the fallen to 1.19 from euro this year to see if the eurozone as a whole will face dilemma of default, you will have more on the side of embodiment, but now no such fluctuations as seen, so it is unlikely in the short term risk of direct breach of eurozone.

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Federal Reserve ignored QE3 Greece won the 5 year austerity plan

summary: the US dollar against major currencies on Thursday a strong rally after the QE2 will end as scheduled, the Fed ignored the QE3 expectations, another source said Greece had won on 5-year austerity plan approved by lending institutions, news that the euro rebounded sharply, IEA released 60 million barrels of crude oil reserve make monetary of goods decreased by a main theme in forex markets.

Thursday (23rd) rising US dollar against major currencies after the Federal Reserve (FED) Chairman Bernanke (Ben s. Bernanke) suggested there would be no additional stimulus measures, as dollar brings rising power.

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euro/dollars fell , By the European Central Bank (ECB) President Trichet (Jean-Claude Trichet), debt crisis threat to financial stability in Europe; the other oil-exporting countries currencies such as the Canadian dollar fell, due to the International Energy Agency (IEA) said it would release 60 million barrels of crude oil reserves to ease the shortage, information leading to the collapse in oil prices and hurt commodity money.

$ 600 billion Treasury purchase program of the Federal Reserve, namely the second round of the quantitative easing policy would be concluded at the end of this month.

United States Ka-Shing Group (Gain Capital Group LLC) Eric Viloria, Chief currency strategist in New York, said: "we see the dollar today rose, QE2 QE3 was expected after the Federal Reserve has ignored, so the fed before implementing the QE2 is to avoid a deflationary pressure, however the current deflation was no longer an issue. "

$ index currently located near 75.3 than last session 0.6%; 0.67%, EUR/USD is currently lower than the previous trading day, trading near 1.426; 0.3%, dollar/Yen is now than the last session, trading in the vicinity of 80.6, hit a high 80.79 since June 16.

under the influence of global economic slowdown fears, rising Swiss franc against major currencies, against the euro hit a record high. Euro/Swiss franc fell in 1.7%, to a record low of 1.1845.

report shows Europe's service sector and manufacturing sector purchasing managers ' index (PMI) fell by more than expected, stalling added in support for the eurozone economy, eurozone June integrated Markit PMI 55.8 per cent of the initial value since May, economists expected 55.2 per cent.

the rising dollar/yen for the second day after the Federal Reserve's decision at the end of this month after the end of QE2 continued at record highs on the balance sheet, to stimulate economic recovery. In addition, the Fed also cut its economic growth expected this year.

Western Pacific (601,099, unit) banks (Westpac Banking Corp) in Auckland Imre Speizer, strategist, said: "the next two months the Fed will not mention QE3, without any implied to further stimulate the economy, which will provide opportunities for shorting risk assets, long on dollars. "

United States Department of Labor (Labor Department) report showed on Thursday, as of June 18 week, United States, unemployment in the early gold increased by 9,000 people to 429,000 in the number of people; and United States Department of Commerce (Commerce Department) report shows that the United States in May New Home Sales fell for the first time in three months, down to 2.1% per cent of households.

the EU leaders on Thursday began a two-day summit in Brussels to discuss Greece's debt problems. Germany Angela Merkel (Angela Merkel), eurozone finance ministers will seek to redefine assistance Greece timetable. July 3 to decide Greece meets the conditions for loans under.

ft (Financial Times) reference related reports that Greece opposition leader Antonis Samaras will vote against the Government's new austerity measures, and contrary to the call for solidarity with the EU.

asked the European systemic risk Board (ESRB) alerts when the semaphore system to what color marking Europe's debt crisis, Mr Trichet, told reporters: "from a personal perspective, I would say that it is red. The Committee considers that this is the most serious threats to financial stability. "

there are familiar with Greece sources said on Thursday for talks with international lenders, Greece has won the EU/IMF (EU/IMF) inspection team on the approval of the new 5-year austerity programme. Prior to this, Greece plans to withdraw a series of tax increases and spending cuts.

one source noted, Greece agreement had been reached with the lending institution and the other sources point out that, at present there is only minimal technical details will be completed by Friday. After the news, euro/dollar's rapid surge by more than 70 points, after touching 1.426 above, but then rallied a little break.

Brown Brothers Harriman (Brown Brothers Harriman& Co.) The Group of 10 (G10) Policy Director Lena Komileva in London said: "after the IEA released 60 million barrels of crude oil reserves, we see commodity currencies decreased overall, and this will of course become the main theme in forex markets. "

Authorities did not interfere with signs the United States day or to a record low

as the yen rose to lead the G7 States in March a joint level of foreign exchange market intervention, dealers expected appreciation of the yen will continue, even though Japan has slipped into recession for the third time in 10 years.

3 months ago, there has been speculation that Japan insurers to withdraw assets abroad to cover the earthquake caused damage caused by the series of disasters, in less than a week, the Yen's appreciation of the time 8.5%. Now, politicians and bankers more concerned is United States economic slowdown, the European sovereign debt crisis and political turmoil in the Middle East problem.

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to grams Lai capital of Paul Robinson said: "March Forex interference Shi of scenario very special When uncertainty is incredibly high, from administration point of view, too-rapid Yen fluctuations is very worrying. "

John Normand of the JPMorgan Chase company said:" more people to come round to the strength of the yen, because they have abandoned the faith of the Fed will tighten monetary policy. Unless the yen renewed sharp fluctuations, otherwise the authorities intervene to interfere is not likely to occur. "

last week, the appreciation of the yen against the dollar by 0.34% per cent to 80.05; appreciation of the yen against the Euro 0.62% per cent 114.52. Analysts on the yen was less pessimistic, partly because of recent appreciation has become slow. According to foreign media investigation said dollar/Yen is expected to end at 86 and after May the predictive value of 88.

the Federal Reserve look forward to the

6 17th, IMF in within two months of the second amendment to the United States economic growth forecasts. IMF says expected United States economic growth this year as 2.5%, per cent in 2012. The value and 2.8% of April is expected to be reduced. IMF will also fall in global growth expected from per cent in April to 4.3%.

traders on the Chicago futures exchange in January had expected the fed to raise overnight interbank lending rates between banks in 2011. And now, traders expect interest rate raise early to late 2012.

are honorific title as "Mr Yen" Aoyama University Professor Eisuke Sakakibara God (EISUKE SAKAKIBARA), "said Bernanke's recent statements show that the Fed will continue its loose monetary policy, which means that interest rates will continue to be low. When you turn to Japan, you will see the many Yen negative factors caused by earthquake, but United States weak economic recovery, are more likely to further appreciation of the yen. "

the ever-increasing demand for Yen

the world's largest FX foreign exchange hedge fund Concepts LLC is expected, as investors concluded that stock and other higher-yielding assets have scene no longer, it will continue to increase demand for Yen. The Fund's founder, John Taylor said, the yen against the dollar in July is expected to grow to 78 in the fourth quarter may reach 75.

according to the commodity futures trading Commission (Commodity Futures Trading Commission) data show that futures traders bet on the appreciation of the yen against the dollar has reached the highest since March. On June 14, the speculative hedge funds and other large institutions holding Yen net long 24,768, most since March 22.

Furthermore, inflation-adjusted 10-year Japan government bond yields higher also make investors more inclined to buy Japan bonds. 10-year Japan bonds real rate of return of 82 basis points, while the United States Treasury real rate of return of only-63 basis points.

the Japan economy

if the weakness of the yen, the appearance of help to Japan Prime Minister Naoto led Japan economy out of recession, from this point, the current situation in the negative. Japan House province said on June 9 in the first quarter from Japan GDP contract by 3.5%. Toyota and Honda are two major companies have said that, due to the impact of the strong yen and the great earthquake, its profits will be reduced. These two major auto manufacturers have said, it may move production to foreign countries.

according to Baring Asset Management (Baring Asset Management) Alan Wilde said Japan deteriorated financial situation or to limit Yen appreciation. Japan debt is twice times the scale of its economy, which is most in developed countries, and Moody's ratings on May 31, also said its Aa2 credit rating will likely be reduced.

Wilde said: "I puzzled for the strength of the yen, because its fundamental view, whether credit rating also prospects for economic growth are not particularly stronger than any developed country. "

strong depressing exports of the yen, the first quarter of 2011 Japan total net export share of GDP has decreased by 0.2%.

Bernanke Conference near the expected to seek stability of interest rates market confidence

United States Federal open market Committee (FOMC) on Tuesday (June 21) will hold a two-day interest rate meeting, widely speculated, by then it will be officially decided to end on June 30 of US $ 600 billion Treasury purchase program. Outside also speculated, will also be maintained on the expiration of existing securities investment policy to prevent shrinkage on the balance sheet. At the same time, Federal Reserve still expected to maintain the federal funds interest rate target range in 0% per cent.

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outside on above guessing General comparison identity Actual results should not, therefore will not cause much alarm. But Bernanke interest rate following the speech, larger outside the debate. Ben Bernanke this week, needs a stable financial markets, United States businesses and the public, while they were on United States economic nervousness in the future.

United States recent weak local economic data increased outside after the end of QE2 United States concerns economic fate. Meanwhile, the stock market also fell has been 6 weeks in the last 7 weeks. United States unemployment rate up to 9.1%, and United States domestic inflation has reached the highest value since October 2008, which criticized the Federal Reserve.

FAO Economics Robert Brusca, Chief Economist, said: "Bernanke need to economic confidence, he must tell the public everything will improve. "

The of the Economic Outlook Group Bernard Baumohl believes that Bernanke need to express a firm and informed perspective, so that investors be convinced. He said: "I don't think he will like a cheerleader. I think he must be realistic. "

Wells of Scott Anderson Baumohl point of Fargo, he said:" the Bernanke will have to be frank and direct. "

Baumohl, Ben Bernanke will be trying to calm the market, he will tell the market, in the foreseeable future, there will be no fundamental change in policy direction. Baumohl said, while to reach the third round of debt buying obstacles are quite high, but you want to exit the current ultra-loose policy is also very difficult. "Bernanke would make the market convinced the Fed will wait for the time being. "

Baumohl also said, as another step in building confidence, Bernanke need assurance that will establish tighter monitoring of the environment, to prevent any threat to the United States economy appears.

UBS Securities (UBS Securities) Maury Harris said inflation, Bernanke will demonstrate meeting, a bit of a tough attitude than before. This view by many analysts agree.

core CPI5, excluding food and energy prices rose 0.3%, was the largest increase since June 2008. Many people believe that, to the end of this year, core CPI rate rose nearly 2%.

Action Economics Chief Economist Mike Englund said, because the public has been very much dissatisfied about rising energy prices, Bernanke will therefore unlikely to on short-term oil price fell as much as advertised. He said: "we are not for 98 dollars per barrel of oil prices to optimism. ”

　　Stone & Ray Stone McCarthy Research Associates said he reported the Fed might adopt a formal inflation target is curious. Atlanta reserve President Lockhart (Dennis Lockhart) supports the establishment of an inflation target this month, the authoritative media also reported that the Fed is serious discussion of this proposal. The Wall Street Journal said at this meeting, concrete actions will not be expanded.

at present, fed a fuzzy inflation target of around about 2%.

, Barclays Capital economists said, as the inflation rate in the Federal Reserve continuously to improve the implementation of monetary policy, inflation can also be fed to the outside world that determines its still a way to remain vigilant on inflation.

Stone said that fed the possibility of setting a formal inflation target is less than 50%, but if the Fed really did so, he would not be shocked.

there has been speculation that the meeting, the Fed could lower its economic growth forecasts.

Before New York high interest currencies hold gains focus Greece vote results

by yesterday EU officials speech and Greece Government will smooth through vote and get 12 billion euro of optimistic expected boost, Tuesday global stock market full rally, Japan stock market received high 1.13%, European stock market also substantially high, disc in the gains near 1%, early disc China Ministry said will help eurozone national implementation economic steadily growth, and is holdings eurozone bond, Greece concerns easing order euro, and pounds and AUD, high income currency continues to keep firm. Market attracted the most attention to the number of Greece's Prime Minister Papandreou results of the vote, the voting started last Sunday, the results will be announced around 05:00 in Beijing on Wednesday. Market consensus forecast Papandreou will successfully passed a vote to get the Government under the leadership of EU/IMF of 12 billion euros of aid loans to avoid Greece major bad impact of breach. In addition, since Papandreou after successful reorganization of the Cabinet on Friday, its 300 seats in Parliament, it also has most of the 155 seats, which also increased his odds of rate. Also proceed from the interests of the entire eurozone, Greece by reducing the Red case to gain assistance will help stabilize the market on Greece and other eurozone confidence in the country. If Greece successfully passed a vote of the new Government, Greece debt concerns are expected to further ease the global stock markets, commodity markets and high interest currencies such as euro is also strong recovery will be further boosted. However, is able to completely exclude the possibility of voting failed, Greece opposition parties and people in Taiwan are powerful against approved austerity plan and the holding of an early election calls for making the results still face greater uncertainty. EUR/USD rebound temporarily stalled below the 1.44, the exchange rate can continue rebound trend since last Friday to wait for Greece voting results announced, mood after voting results in changes in the market is also expected to have important effects on stock markets and commodity money. United States release United States May existing home sales data, material data limited impact, the mood of cautious optimism in the market may continue to dominate the major financial markets. (Zhong Ying)

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European period data: United Kingdom May public sector payments short difference 11.1 billion pounds , Expected 6.6 billion pounds; May public sector net borrowing 15.2 billion pounds, expected 16.5 billion pounds; United Kingdom June CBI retail sales difference value +27, expected 26; eurozone June ZEW economic boom index-5.9, expected 6.1; Germany June ZEW economic boom index -9.0,-3.0;

United States period data: United States May into housing sales;

euro/dollars in Greece vote case vote Qian keep firm, European period overall at 1.44 below narrow finishing. If Greece successfully passed a vote of the Government, the exchange rate is expected to rise further. Technology day figure stymied on 50 and 20th averages, stochastic indicators rising, but Exchange rate rising only valid break above resistance to a recovery trend.

$/Yen remain at above 80 debt consolidation, global stock markets as a result Greece crisis easing the overall rise, causing slight currency pressure. Short-term concerns Greece confidence in the voting results. But in this will be announced before United States existing home sales data, the exchange rate of may are likely to have a certain impact. Technically down greater risk of breakthrough of the day, dropped below 80 or further tested Poly plus channel bottom.

pounds/dollars in early trading the British central bankers Fisher speech suppressed from 1.625 fell sharply to 1.6166, Fisher said the British Central Bank may need to further expand the scale of quantitative easing, and represents the necessary depreciation of the pound. However, the global stock market rally Greece crisis easing exchange rate remained relatively firm as a whole. Short-term continuing attention to changes in market sentiment. Technically, daily figure rebound stymied by a 100-day moving average, indicators bearish, exchange rate risk near short term still has again retreated to 1.61.

$ AUD/recovered full rally boosted European stock market rally in Asia decline, but the current lack of clear direction for the time being, the exchange rate in Greece may vote before the vote, did not rule out continued consolidation. Below the Japanese stymied 50/20/10-day moving average line, if effective short-term breakthroughs will continue rangebound trend.

European banking Greece debt exposure investigation crisis or crushed before the ECB

6 20th, International Monetary Fund (IMF) published impact report on the global economy in the eurozone, eurozone sovereign debt crisis spillover effects on the global economy of the country is limited, but if the banking system crisis spread to the eurozone core countries, impact on the global economy will be much more serious.

the "current situation remains controllable, but needs attention", IMF Deputy Managing Director Mr Lipsky said to reporters after the meeting of eurozone finance ministers.

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Greece debt recombinant most firm of against who European Central Bank also in June 15 publishing report said Currently is the biggest risk for financial stability in the eurozone Greece debt spillovers.

in the eurozone, France and Germany banking on Greece public debt exposure to the largest. Greece currently total 325 billion euros in debt, France Bank of 16 billion euros, Germany Bank 20 billion euros. Because Greece debt exposure rating company Moody's June 15 to France three big banks made degraded observation a warning.

as France bank regulators, France's Central Bank refused to make comments on Moody's move, but his spokesman cited in the written replies to the reporter of France kelisidian·nuoya, Central Bank as saying: "I do not think France banks are particularly at risk of a".

London think-tank open Europe economic researcher Raoul Ruparel believes that France banking on Greece debt exposure risks can be controlled, the real risk is France several major bank in Greece with a large branch, and hold Greece banking shares, "from this perspective, the Moody's downgrade of observation are justified."

the ECB has repeatedly stressed that Greece debt restructuring once, due to the overlapping of the European financial system, will cause potential risks to the euro area banking system.

according to the calculation of the economic think-tank Bruegel in Brussels, in the present Greece 325 billion euros of the total public debt, banks hold debt amounted to € 52 billion in the eurozone, one of the most major holders for Germany (EUR 20 billion), France (16 billion euros).

This warning 3 by Moody's France in the Bank, BNP Paribas (BNP Paribas) Greece debt up to, Euro 5 billion. But the Bank expected, even if its holdings of Greece, and Portugal and Ireland all value of Treasury bonds slipped to end-March level, capital losses only to the banks of the 0.15%.

in addition, the Industrial Bank in late March (601,166, unit) (Societe Generale) holds 2.5 billion euro Greece debt, agricultural credit banks (Credit Agricole) exposure to 631 million euros.

Bruegel think, Greece to will debt recovery to can continued level, need will currently debt book value cuts 30%, but on eurozone Bank of effect is "can controlled of", although has some Bank need national injection capital to cover loss, but the country public financial scale still enough to support this class behavior, "Greece collapsed will caused eurozone Bank dominoes effect of saying, although can understanding, but exists exaggerated components".

Raoul Ruparel also believed that, with France and Germany compared to their size and scale of capital, Greece debt loss is tolerable.

branch runs risk in

Greece yangnuosi·papantuoniwu in an interview with reporters, former Finance Minister, concluded that Greece once the debt default, real big problem is Greece Bank, because after the bond losses suffered, Greece inevitable need round of funds into banks, but Greece Government apparently powerless to aid banks. According to the calculation of Bruegel, Greece national banks to hold government debt of EUR 68 billion.

an EU officials listed in Greece when the risks of default, Greece Bank losses are listed in the first place.

Raoul Ruparel believes that if Greece defaults, Greece Bank directly facing the direct loss of 20 billion to 30 billion euros; is more important, once the ECB claims that Greece debt default, will not accept it as a guarantee of providing liquidity to the banking, it will make Greece banks face a funding gap of around 80 billion euros.

Raoul Ruparel considers France banks in Greece where the operation is the real risk in the banking sector, "while France held by the Bank of GreeceLa national debt levels below Germany banks, but their overall risk level than in Germany. " France banking on Greece participation in the banking sector there are two main forms: in Greece of branches and holds Greece large shares of the Bank.

France Industrial Bank, through its Greece branch in Greece loan amount up to EUR 3.4 billion; held Greece debt of at least the agricultural credit Bank is has the most loans, amounted to EUR 24.1 billion.

the European Central Bank facing bankruptcy?

Raoul Ruparel, in its report of a study lead author also argues that because of the peripheral eurozone sovereign debt and exposure of the banking system, the European Central Bank's balance sheet also deteriorated sharply, even facing bankruptcy threat.

he analysis has JP Morgan, and Citi Bank, and European Central Bank, and States Central Bank of data think, since last year May European Central Bank began from II level market purchase bonds yilai, its on Greece, and Ireland, and Portugal and Spain, edge national of risk exposure reached 440 billion euro, part to bonds forms holds, for 74.4 billion euro, another part is is to these National Bank provides of unlimited liquidity, total for 369.2 billion euro.

and the capital of the ECB has only 82 billion euro, which makes its leverage 23-24 times as much, and more robust European Central Bank, such as Sweden's Central Bank, and Norway's Central Bank and Switzerland's Central Bank leverage ratio for 4.73 times times, twice, and only 6.25 times respectively. This means that, if the value of the assets of the ECB cutting only by 4.25%, it will bring it to the actual status of bankruptcy.

but only Greece debt restructuring this form will allow the European Central Bank is in an extremely unfavorable position. The European Central Bank on Greece's exposure to 190 billion euros, if Greece debt restructuring to cut their book value 50%, the European Central Bank in Greece on Treasury bonds and bank loans, total losses will be between 44.5 billion euros to 65.75 billion euros, which will allow the European Central Bank leverage of up to 52 times to 123 times between times.

"this is also the European Central Bank tried to oppose Greece debt restructuring one of the reasons", Raoul Ruparel said.

Greece affair euro dollar is still bearish

Xiaoyan mushrooms

a rising euro against the dollar on Tuesday, but in Greece prior to the debt problem has not been a definite progress, the euro still bearish by institutional investors.

in order to obtain from the European Union and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) assistance, Greece must have more fiscal austerity measures, including a series of privatisation of the assets, but which resulted in Greece popular discontent and mass demonstrations erupted, Greece was forced to restructure the Government Cabinet, uncertainty over the new aid scheme therefore also.

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in above environment Xia Investor risk appetite deteriorated sharply, then the euro/dollar was fell sharply, and the leaders of the EU is still weighed down in order to restore market confidence. Since the end of 2009, Greece debt crisis, this pattern has not changed.

the EU Finance Ministers meeting on Monday, Greece debt crisis solution, still no consensus, but of a European financial stability fund effective borrowing capacity increased to 440 billion euros of message number to appease investors ' mood. Ease risk aversion sentiment, to non-US currencies such as euro rebound.

according to Eurogroup President Juncker said that Greece can reform commitments are the next batch of loans in place of the key. However, it was eventually decided to defer to Greece providing 12 billion euros (about US $ 17 billion) emergency lending further make a final decision.

Beijing 21st late, Greece Congress will hold a vote on the new Government, through voting, the Congress will be in late June to vote on the Government's new austerity measures. This time, Greece attitude of the people in Greece can tide over the difficulty this time is critical.

Greece difficulty still lies in the capital. Because Greece had been unable to obtain effective financing from the market, external assistance has become Greece the only life-saving straw. As a member of most components of the eurozone, Germany once again on the new aid efforts have been made, however extremely fierce reaction in financial markets last week, Greece 2-year Treasury bond yields were once more than 30%, China Merchants Bank (600,036, unit) Liu Dongliang, an analyst for the business news reporter described, in the Treasury bond market may be regarded as a "astronomical". In addition, Greece, and Ireland, and Portugal, 10-year government bond yields are in its history since the euro market last week.

but final results may not be very good. According to foreign media reports, surveys, Greece over 50% of voters oppose the austerity measures. If you are not in July made the loan, Greece bankruptcy may be close at hand, and this result is not only against the euro, and is huge blow to confidence in the financial markets as a whole.

Liu Dongliang told reporters, Greece in the event of a default in the future is the probability of the event, occurrence and intensity of the problem. If Greece defaults, in Greece with large exposures to Germany, and France and the United States banking industry, will again face enormous risks.

he also mentioned that Greece Cabinet reorganization is a dangerous signal, indicates that the debt and financial instability, has begun to spread to the political arena. He said that, although prior rating agency cuts Greece rating make the market feel numb, but Greece the Government was forced to restructure the Cabinet and the investor have to renewed focus on rating agency's rating, it now, the downgrade is not groundless.

so the prospects of the euro against the US dollar continues to be bearish, agency analysts recommended that investors every high being short of the euro, and some analysts believe that declines as the EUR/USD will be put on the first half of 2010.