6 20th, International Monetary Fund (IMF) published impact report on the global economy in the eurozone, eurozone sovereign debt crisis spillover effects on the global economy of the country is limited, but if the banking system crisis spread to the eurozone core countries, impact on the global economy will be much more serious.
the "current situation remains controllable, but needs attention", IMF Deputy Managing Director Mr Lipsky said to reporters after the meeting of eurozone finance ministers.
recommended reading
beauty data poor dragged down beauty means Greece or reached Rescue Agreement QE3 hopes stimulation dollars higher Greece crunch programme not optimistic euro bearing pressure in the Russia signed bilateral currency settlement agreement EU Summit primary issues resolve Greece crisis Tan Yaling: dollars status complex stagflation constraints fed wait deciphered fuck disc password master main trends Greece debt recombinant most firm of against who European Central Bank also in June 15 publishing report said Currently is the biggest risk for financial stability in the eurozone Greece debt spillovers.
in the eurozone, France and Germany banking on Greece public debt exposure to the largest. Greece currently total 325 billion euros in debt, France Bank of 16 billion euros, Germany Bank 20 billion euros. Because Greece debt exposure rating company Moody's June 15 to France three big banks made degraded observation a warning.
as France bank regulators, France's Central Bank refused to make comments on Moody's move, but his spokesman cited in the written replies to the reporter of France kelisidian·nuoya, Central Bank as saying: "I do not think France banks are particularly at risk of a".
London think-tank open Europe economic researcher Raoul Ruparel believes that France banking on Greece debt exposure risks can be controlled, the real risk is France several major bank in Greece with a large branch, and hold Greece banking shares, "from this perspective, the Moody's downgrade of observation are justified."
the ECB has repeatedly stressed that Greece debt restructuring once, due to the overlapping of the European financial system, will cause potential risks to the euro area banking system.
according to the calculation of the economic think-tank Bruegel in Brussels, in the present Greece 325 billion euros of the total public debt, banks hold debt amounted to € 52 billion in the eurozone, one of the most major holders for Germany (EUR 20 billion), France (16 billion euros).
This warning 3 by Moody's France in the Bank, BNP Paribas (BNP Paribas) Greece debt up to, Euro 5 billion. But the Bank expected, even if its holdings of Greece, and Portugal and Ireland all value of Treasury bonds slipped to end-March level, capital losses only to the banks of the 0.15%.
in addition, the Industrial Bank in late March (601,166, unit) (Societe Generale) holds 2.5 billion euro Greece debt, agricultural credit banks (Credit Agricole) exposure to 631 million euros.
Bruegel think, Greece to will debt recovery to can continued level, need will currently debt book value cuts 30%, but on eurozone Bank of effect is "can controlled of", although has some Bank need national injection capital to cover loss, but the country public financial scale still enough to support this class behavior, "Greece collapsed will caused eurozone Bank dominoes effect of saying, although can understanding, but exists exaggerated components".
Raoul Ruparel also believed that, with France and Germany compared to their size and scale of capital, Greece debt loss is tolerable.
branch runs risk in
Greece yangnuosi·papantuoniwu in an interview with reporters, former Finance Minister, concluded that Greece once the debt default, real big problem is Greece Bank, because after the bond losses suffered, Greece inevitable need round of funds into banks, but Greece Government apparently powerless to aid banks. According to the calculation of Bruegel, Greece national banks to hold government debt of EUR 68 billion.
an EU officials listed in Greece when the risks of default, Greece Bank losses are listed in the first place.
Raoul Ruparel believes that if Greece defaults, Greece Bank directly facing the direct loss of 20 billion to 30 billion euros; is more important, once the ECB claims that Greece debt default, will not accept it as a guarantee of providing liquidity to the banking, it will make Greece banks face a funding gap of around 80 billion euros.
Raoul Ruparel considers France banks in Greece where the operation is the real risk in the banking sector, "while France held by the Bank of GreeceLa national debt levels below Germany banks, but their overall risk level than in Germany. " France banking on Greece participation in the banking sector there are two main forms: in Greece of branches and holds Greece large shares of the Bank.
France Industrial Bank, through its Greece branch in Greece loan amount up to EUR 3.4 billion; held Greece debt of at least the agricultural credit Bank is has the most loans, amounted to EUR 24.1 billion.
the European Central Bank facing bankruptcy?
Raoul Ruparel, in its report of a study lead author also argues that because of the peripheral eurozone sovereign debt and exposure of the banking system, the European Central Bank's balance sheet also deteriorated sharply, even facing bankruptcy threat.
he analysis has JP Morgan, and Citi Bank, and European Central Bank, and States Central Bank of data think, since last year May European Central Bank began from II level market purchase bonds yilai, its on Greece, and Ireland, and Portugal and Spain, edge national of risk exposure reached 440 billion euro, part to bonds forms holds, for 74.4 billion euro, another part is is to these National Bank provides of unlimited liquidity, total for 369.2 billion euro.
and the capital of the ECB has only 82 billion euro, which makes its leverage 23-24 times as much, and more robust European Central Bank, such as Sweden's Central Bank, and Norway's Central Bank and Switzerland's Central Bank leverage ratio for 4.73 times times, twice, and only 6.25 times respectively. This means that, if the value of the assets of the ECB cutting only by 4.25%, it will bring it to the actual status of bankruptcy.but only Greece debt restructuring this form will allow the European Central Bank is in an extremely unfavorable position. The European Central Bank on Greece's exposure to 190 billion euros, if Greece debt restructuring to cut their book value 50%, the European Central Bank in Greece on Treasury bonds and bank loans, total losses will be between 44.5 billion euros to 65.75 billion euros, which will allow the European Central Bank leverage of up to 52 times to 123 times between times.
"this is also the European Central Bank tried to oppose Greece debt restructuring one of the reasons", Raoul Ruparel said.
