beginning of the year, international oil prices and a sharp rise in commodity prices leading, global inflation situation more grim "interest rate hike Club" members continue to increase, in some countries a multi-pronged, the introduction of monetary, fiscal or administrative interventions and other measures to stabilize prices. This from today up launched "global main economic body should inflation countermeasures" series reported, intended on Australia and Canada, resources class developed economic body, and to Brazil for representative of Latin America economic body, and to India for representative of Asia emerging economic body, and to Russia for representative of Eastern Europe economic body, and to South Africa for representative of African economic body, and eurozone and United Kingdom and United States currently of inflation status and the causes, and should inflation of countermeasures and the effect for analysis, while on the economic body future inflation expected of regulation and currency policy adjustment of risk for study, please attention.

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with to oil prices and grain prices for representative of international bulk commodity price all rise , The threat of inflation from taking the lead in the recovery of the economy to the wider spread, which have not yet entered a stable recovery period of great uncertainty in the global economy. When people's attention gradually shifted from against crises and fostering recovery to inflation when Australia and Canada as the first trigger pull the interest rates in the current economic cycle of developed economies and the G7 countries, their experience of fighting inflation and effect of far more concern. To this end, the reporter an exclusive interview with the Standard Chartered Bank in Canada head of global macroeconomic research yuehan·kaerfuli and Nomura Australia Chief Economist Stephen Roberts.

Reporter: how Canada and Australia the current inflation situation, respectively, in October last year and February this year the two countries suspended interest rates, is this what is one of the major policy considerations?

yuehan·kaerfuli: Canada current overall level of inflation is very low. 1.6% core inflation was mainly from higher energy prices had spread to other areas as well as sales tax in some provinces and not directly related to the impact of tax increase is expected to be a less recent. It is worth mentioning is that different from the non-oil producers, Canada can benefit from the current high oil prices, oil prices rose to their negative impact to the economy was relatively small. Currently Canada money supply to grow 5%, is a healthy, non-inflationary level. The Central Bank decided last October suspended interest rates, including mainly considered on economic prospects and the results of a number of factors such as appreciation of the Canadian dollar.

Stephen Roberts: Australia inflation fell from the second half of 2010 has been, an increase from the second quarter at an annual rate of 3.1% per cent in the third quarter of 2.8%, and 2.7% in the fourth quarter. However, these down at the moment of lower inflation factors have changed. The one hand, the appreciation of the Australian dollar is no longer as they were in 2009 and 2010 so fast (AUD rapid appreciation is lower Australia main factors of prices of manufacturing imports goods); on the other hand, wage growth began accelerating (from 3% in the second quarter of 2010 rose to 3.9% in the fourth quarter), and may be further accelerated with labor shortages. Currently Australia's unemployment rate was 5%, wages continue to rise and is traditionally a low level of unemployment that match. As a result, over a period of low inflation may not continue. Australia's Central Bank suspended pace of interest rate hike was chosen, later this year, the main reason is to have more information about the economy was stronger and inflation pressure before you take action.

Reporter: how to see the effectiveness of inflation? In addition to monetary policy, to curb the inflation rise is using other tools or even administrative means? How to see the effects of these means?

Stephen Roberts: Australia Central Bank since the beginning of last century 90 's, using the cash interest rate alone such a tool to influence monetary policy change, with the goal of annual CPI in each economic cycle, you will control between 2%. Since the beginning of last century 90 's, its medium-term after the introduction of inflation targeting, Australia average annual inflation rate of 2.5%. After the start of the 2008 global financial crisis, Australia's Central Bank will its cash rate slashed from in the peak of 7.25% to 3%, this level of interest rates is also known as "crisis rate". After the crisis began to recede, the Australian Central Bank becomes first began to restore normalization of interest rates in the developed economies of countries, to borrow it interest rates back to average over the past 10 years to 15. Since then, due to the apparent sharp rise in commodity prices and judge the economy could soon appear higher than the potential growth rate of GDP growth, o central banks raise interest rates again at the end of 2010, which pushed borrowing rate slightly higher than the long-term average position, monetary policy also entered the "squeeze" areas. We believe that this tightening of monetary policy may restrict the consumer spending at relatively modest levels, so as to start from in the middle of this year have the potential to rapidly increase the huge spending to make room.

yuehan·kaerfuli: Canada's Central Bank is the target ofIn the output gap (that is, remaining capacity) after eliminating its benchmark interest rate rose to a neutral level, that is between 3.5%, we expect that level in 2012 some time to achieve. But the case will also depend on the exchange rate changes. If the United States interest rates low, Canada's Central Bank too radical tightening of behavior may push up the Canadian dollar, which itself will not only tightening of monetary policy, but also puts pressure on exporters. Dealing with the problem of inflation, apart from monetary policy also has some other special means. Added the Central Bank's main worry at the moment is housing prices rise, rather than consumer inflation. To this end, and the Government has taken other measures, such as tightening of mortgage loan origination and increase down the proportion of the purchase.

Reporter: how to see the inflation Outlook for the future? When the Central Bank's next policy choices will focus areas?

yuehan·kaerfuli: future Canada Central Bank will focus on economic growth, rather than worry too much food and oil prices rise for the time being, because of their style closer to the Fed rather than the European Central Bank. A long time, the Canada economic growth mainly by United States economic growth rates around, so United States economic growth prospects will be adding future focus of the Bank. Recent figures show United States economy becomes increasingly stronger, but how long will this strong will maintain there are still many uncertainties. We expect that Canada may be rushing into raising rates later this year.

Stephen Roberts: we expect Australia inflation will accelerate in the next 18 months to 3% or higher, and the main reason for the rate of inflation is resource investment spending accelerated such projects may lead to higher than the level of potential growth economic growth. Usually, resources price rise increases Australia main resource of company profits, and many of these enterprises expand wealth increased to hold shares of resource companies, and to a certain percentage reflected in pay additional taxes to the Government. Therefore, our view is that Australia's Central Bank may raise interest rates again in the second quarter, to beat before growth accelerated rise further tightening of monetary policy. Australia's Central Bank will pay close attention in the future economic growth of its main trading partners (in particular, its largest export market--China), national trade and the labour market situation.

Reporter: can introduce Canada and Australia compared to other major economies to fight inflation: the history and tradition? How to understand the advantages and disadvantages of each monetary policy trend?

yuehan·kaerfuli: Canada in the early 80 's and 90 have experienced serious inflation, but since then, Government budget policies and the Central Bank's monetary policy performance has been good. We believe that allowing freedom of exchange rate fluctuations is an important part of its monetary policy work in the process. Compared to other central banks, and central banks are usually more concerned about economic growth. In fact, interest rates move in 2002 to 2003 the row on time is not ripe because interest rates have been widely criticized, and eventually had to cut interest rates again in the late 2003 and early 2004. For now, and this tendency of the Central Bank has not changed. Of general interest from international commodity prices brought about by rising inflation pressures in Canada is not a problem, because of its own as a resource-exporting countries can significantly reverse this input inflation. Instead, people worried about such a rise in commodity prices may drag on United States economic slowdown hurt Canada's economy.

Stephen Roberts: anti-inflation to win the reputation and credibility in Australia Central Bank how much compared to many other central banks gives some hawks impression. On the policy tools used in the fight against inflation, I think its one of the most important reform was in 1983 allowed the Australian dollar exchange rate to float. Currently, this exchange rate policy up to has very effective of inflation buffer role, is in international environment on Australia favourable Shi exchange rate will rose, to increased its on import commodity of purchasing power, pull low import commodity price, ease domestic inflation; and in international environment adverse national economic Shi, AUD is will corresponding decline, to while upgrade national export competitiveness, on the improve import commodity price, buffer economic adverse Shi domestic may appears of price downward pressure.