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Saturday, April 16, 2011

With the interest rate cycle in 2005 of the European Central Bank twice a year or further interest rates

the European Central Bank (ECB) Member Thursday (14th), Eurozone inflation risks of the new reminder, and pointed out that the current economic situation occurred in 2005 at the start of the last interest rate hike cycle that are similar.

the European Central Bank on 7th interest rate up to 1.25%, despite guarantees of the ECB President Trichet, does not plan to enter a new interest rate cycle in advance, but the market that the European Central Bank will enter a stable interest rate channel.

member of the Executive Committee of the ECB Paramo (Jose Manuel Gonzalez-Paramo) and Smaghi (Lorenzo Bini Smaghi) 14th focus on inflation in the eurozone, economists believe the ECB will raise interest rates again in June or July.

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paramo in Moscow attended meeting in the said , The "risk of economic growth has stabilized, but inflation risks have increased. Oil prices are the main drivers of recent inflation up, markets don't think oil prices will quickly fall back. "

in an interview with Reuters, the European Central Bank Slovenia Member Marko Kranjec, after raising interest rates last week, the European Central Bank's monetary policy still belong to the adaptability of policy in the financial system is still a strong support of the European Central Bank money.

Smaghi accept Italy an interview with newspaper Il Sole 24 Ore said, the current macroeconomic situation map of 2005 year. In 2005, the European Central Bank conducted a series of interest rate increases, interest rates rise all the way from 2% to 4%.

he claims that "currently, we are in the low end of the cycle of interest rate, as of 2005", while in 2005 the European Central Bank's interest rate moves, as well as the interest rate before the economic meltdown of 2008 global action excuse.

he also said: "the 2009 economic recession and inflation risks proved, the minimum level of current interest rates are reasonable. As these risk weakening, so interest rates will gradually become less reasonable. "

monthly bulletin of the European Central Bank pointed out that continuing unresolved geopolitical situation will also promote higher oil prices and inflation in the eurozone.

reports that "the Middle East and North Africa region reflects the economic activities of the political unrest there are downside risks, and is opposite the eurozone prices short-term upward risks. "

Paramo and Kranjec no mention at all possibility of future interest rate increases, in contrast, recent makers pointed out that other European Central banks interest rates, the ECB has prepared to tighten monetary policy over the next few months.

most economists and investors now believe that European Central banks adjust the two interest rates during the year to 1.75%, but judging from the recent performance of the policy makers, some of expert has reduced the possibility of the European Central Bank raised interest rates earlier.

the eurozone and United States monetary policy differences between expanding, life had an impact on the market, the week, the euro hit a 15-month highs against the dollar.

you can see from the media reported this month, eurozone debt crisis of the three countries Greece, and Ireland and Portugal has become the focus of the European Central Bank object, politicians think more Greece debt restructuring may be needed.

Smaghi warned Greece any debt restructuring of the Government's move will have devastating effects on its banking system and economy.

Paramo at the same time with some of the official views of the same, that in the EU and IMF aid plan, supported by Greece to return to the open market in early 2012 as soon as possible.

member of the Executive Committee of the European Central Bank's stark (Juergen Stark) called Ireland Government, the European Central Bank as Ireland banks provided emergency assistance will not continue, affected priority banking bonds held there is a risk of problems will spread to other countries in the eurozone.

stark accepted Ireland media interview that, "European Central Bank's role is to provide liquidity, but not saying Ireland banking funds provided by the European Central Bank. "He adds," as Ireland banks financed the country's GDP reached 100% is not a useful development of the State. ”