dollars Wednesday (on April 27) all decline, us means has refresh three years low points, against Swiss lang touched records low, against AUD also hit 29 years low points; but still has many transactions member is expected, us means will continues to fell to 2008 by touched of records low points 70.698; due to market widely expected fed (Fed) today will does not issued tightened currency policy of implied, even is will in June by planned completed its quantitative loose measures.
BNP Paribas foreign exchange trading in Tokyo, Koichi Yoshikawa said, apart from the United States interest rates expected to weaken the facts and the market has focused on United States debt next month United States may reach the debt ceiling; not only from the perspective of monetary policy difficult to support buying dollars, from the perspective of fiscal policy was also true.
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fed first open reporter will quantitative loose stay "veil to opening" focused fed back city means Greece last year debt deficit scale than expected RMB meeting modified to overcome floating fear syndrome AUD/dollars then create history high 1.079 euro in fed resolution announced Qian climbed New Zealand joint storage material maintained interest rate in 2.5% does not variable second quarter investment policy will hot registration in the CCTV securities information channel Exchange commentator Hong Yu is think , Many of the factors leading to the dollar, the most important factor is the differences between the fed and other central banks interest rates policy as well as disadvantage as a result of the US dollar on the spread. As long as the Fed did not release a clear policy change leads, before the market expectations of future fed interest rates have not changed, even if the dollar due to other short-term factors, may be a short-term rebound and the callback, but vulnerable situation as a whole will be difficult to change. Therefore, after the market will not be expecting the Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke declared to reverse the dollar's decline.
Bianco Research President Jim Bianco also said that certain point of view, no matter what Bernanke said the dollar will remain under pressure. Because most market participants still believed that if the United States economic data deteriorated significantly, or stimulus once led to the end of the current United States stock market fell sharply, the Fed will continue to consider more stimulus.
at present, most investors believe that Federal Reserve policymakers will swear will resolutely carry out the end before the end of June Treasury bond purchase plan, and does not expand to the third round of quantitative easing (QE3). Hong Yu believes that the Fed does not offer the QE3 primary reason is that after the stimulus has gone through the first two rounds, United States of data on employment, consumer spending and consumer confidence data that has been around for a better, which means United States this year, the economy has showed better recovery of growth. Therefore, if considered only from the economic stimulus, the Fed seems to be not much need to continue to expand the scale of quantitative easing.
however, the view was expressed that, United States economy and financial markets are still not strong, the Fed will not cancel, instead QE3 will be introduced. Passport Capital San Francisco hedge fund company founder said, after the end of QE2 United States stock market plunge in 10% per cent. Asset price erosion, the Fed will not sit idly by and do nothing, so the Fed will launch the QE3.
while, also has including JPMorgan (JPMorgan) Chief market policy Division David Kelly zainei of investors and economists were think, for continues to stimulation economic growth, fed may in QE2 end zhihou continues to investment bonds; due to previously has fed officials in speech in the pointed out that, United States economic and inflation still weak is cannot guarantee currency policy implementation change, this order market believe, fed may will continues to implementation a time of again investment policy, then observation debt city income rate of reaction.
Fed will 02:15 local time Wednesday (Beijing: Thursday 02:15) released the latest economic expectations, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke also will participate in answering a reporter's question at a news conference after the meeting for the first time. This is the first time President of the 97-year history of the Federal Reserve held a routine press conference. Therefore, Bernanke's speech was subject of market concern.
Brown Brothers Harriman (Brown Brothers Harriman) Forex Policy Department global competent Marc Chandler said, " primary South grams is may recognized dollars policy is by United States Treasury developed, but fed will consider dollars policy on inflation and the economic growth of effect, this is currency policy conduction mechanism of one copies; investors not may from primary South grams speech in the learned that fed when will tightened policy, because Bernanke I is know also was doubts. &Quot;
Hong Yu says that Ben Bernanke on future economic prospects are expected to be very important, it will be at least as we judge of Federal Reserve monetary policy during the year a clue; judgment of the economic prospects for the future and expected, judging from the last beige book report released, most parts of the Federal Reserve considers the good momentum of economic growth, economic prospects for the future is expected to have a better change.
He further pointed out that the road his attitude to inflation are also very interesting; from the nearly two-month United States inflation data released showed that United States inflation pressure has increased. At present, represented by crude oil commodity prices brought about by inflation, would be possible to continue to render the upward trend in the future, will increase United States inflation pressure; so the Federal Reserve about inflation prospects and attitude towards inflation is very critical.
15:45 ', the dollar index 73.75.
