despite the strong performance of the dollar last week, but many analysts believe the dollar rally won't last. So far this year against the euro continued to decline around 6%. Analyst study found that the dollar index is closely associated with the USD/RMB exchange rate, if the dollar within the next 5 years years rise in 5%-7% (as expected by some analysts and traders), 20%-cent decline in US dollar currency basket might.
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fed crunch policy rxw dollars rally can period euro recent performance can worry future ten years RMB will continues to appreciation cover special is satisfied that: Republican fear be Tan responsibility debt default us then set off subprime investigation spearhead directly at the three large line Xia a any IMF President should is Oriental people Moody's cut Australia four line credit rating deciphered fuck disk password master main trends Faros Trading transactions Department competent Douglas Borthwick said: " people has been in talk about vulnerable dollars , But we think it may have just started falling. EUR/USD is expected to soon rise to 1.5, if the Renminbi revaluation, the exchange rate will further move up. &Quot;
in the past two weeks, the financial market expectations that China will further relax control on renminbi rising. United States Treasury Department recently said that China is expected to increase the appreciation of RMB rate to counter inflation.
the Chinese authorities had allowed a gradual appreciation, was only in April, the appreciation of the Renminbi against the US dollar 0.9%, since the policy since the end of June 2010 the Renminbi peg, has appreciated about 5%. Since 2005, the Chinese authorities to allow its currency in a range against the dollar since trading, the dollar has appreciated more than 27%.
analyst studies have shown that for some time, appreciation of RMB with the euro increased almost equal, this part of the reason lies in the USD/RMB to the dollar index has been in recent years are closely related, while the euro's share of the dollar index reached 58.6%. Dollar index of other components for the yen, the pound, Canadian dollar, Sweden krona and Swiss franc, the proportion of 12.6%,11.9%,9.1%,4.2% and 3.6% respectively.
2005-2008, 18% fall within the dollar, close to the US dollar index decline of 22%.
analysts pointed out that the USD/RMB trend not only indexes have an important impact on the dollar, RMB appreciation may have an impact on trade competitors and partners in Asia, the latter may be more willing to make their own currencies to appreciate.
many economists are predicting that reassessment RMB exchange rate this year is expected to 5%-7% (although some experts believe that the RMB is undervalued against the dollar up to 40%), this can be done one-off revaluation 5%, or the way a gradual appreciation.
analysts pointed out that, according to the US $ index close relationship with the USD/RMB, if 5% year appreciation against the dollar within the next 5 years, it could mean the dollar index fell 20% per cent.
, Borthwick said he believes the dollar increase in the next 5 years up to 7.8%, this means that the tumbling dollar index around 40%. This figure corresponds to decline in October 2007 to March 2008 USD/RMB, but neither of the two sides have complained about the dollar decline.
despite the decline in the next 5 years for many Americans seem extreme, but according to global market standards is not too much. In the three years since 2008, soaring Australian dollar/US dollar 81%, and now there are still many investors buy Australian dollars.
09:11 ', the dollar index 75.32.
